Jan 2025 Investment Update

Happy Chinese New Year everyone!

3rd day of the new year and it seems like most are not back to work yet. Traffic is smooth throughout the day. For me, I have resumed my work, albeit in a slower manner.

Just to do a quick update for my recent investments which can basically be summed up in the following sentences:

Buy what, what drop. 

Sell what, what rise. 

1) BABA

I cut loss for this counter at 84.78 at the end of last year partly due to their drastic price cutting of Qwen. Have briefly talked about this here.

Then on the first day of CNY they released a new version of Qwen (Qwen 2.5-Max) which supposedly surpasses DeepSeek-V3, GPT-4o and Llama-3.1 in performance.

Share price immediately shot up. At this point of writing, BABA is trading at 101.92 pre-market.

What a difference a month makes. 

2) NVDA

Added this counter at 137.80 one week before CNY. Seeing some decent profits in the first two days.

On the third day, DeepSeek was released. NVDA share price went south. As of now it is still recovering from the twin pressures of Qwen and DeepSeek.

Talk about timing again. 

3) MIT

Added MIT at 2.19 on 24th Jan. Three days later unit price went south. Probably due to worries to their DC assets from DeepSeek release.

4) Venture

Around two weeks ago I identified five stocks as potential investment to reduce my REITs concentration. Subsequently after delving into the respective AR and latest business updates I whittled it down to 2 stocks of which Venture is one of them. 

The company has been doing share buyback recently at 12.98, 12.93, 12.95, 12.56, 12.66 and 12.81.

This caught my notice and I decided to pay closer attention to the price movement. At one point it went below 12.60 but I missed the opportunity. It shot up after that and I decided to add MIT instead (as above).

Subsequently the price dropped below 12.70 earlier this week and I added some  at 12.68 on 27th Jan. I feel this compares well and comfortably against the prices added upon by the company. If they feel those are fair values for them, this leaves me with sufficient margin of safety as well. 

5) In General

I have identified Venture and another counter to diversify away from REITs. However I ventured into Venture first partly because the share price of the other counter is stubbornly resolute and refused to drop to my TP.

Nevertheless I will continue to monitor both and prepare to add when opportunities arise.

Recently Powell has sung a different tune to Trump's order to reduce rates further. The latest signal from Fed was to hold the rates at status quo for now.

This prompted a big rise in the share price of local banks and drop in the price of local-listed REITs in general.

Overall effect on my portfolio is still a net positive. 

Local portfolio value stands at S$182,776.40

Some thoughts that came into mind with the present market situation. 

1. Should I take profit off my DBS and OCBC? The capital gains now are roughly equivalent to 16 to 20 years of dividends. This is an age old question that has come to haunt me again.

2. If the current unit prices of the local-listed REITs are the fair values assigned by the market in this climate of 4.25 to 4.50% interest rates, then these price points could form the basis of my TPs (+/-) moving forward.

Last but not least, Heng Ong Huat Ah! 

A Review of 2024

 

Happy New Year everyone.

 

Quick review of 2024 and looking forward to a better 2025.

 

Family

 

Overall not a bad year for us. Only thing is jie jie kept falling down and hurt herself. It got so frequent that we are thinking if there is something wrong with her legs or other parts of the body. This is worrying for my wife and I.

 

There was once I saw her fell down in front of me. She just fell to her knees and I thought that was it. But suddenly her body started to lean forward and her head fell to the ground as well. This process is like happening in slow motion right in front of me.

 

The superstitious side of me even started wondering if something unseen is disturbing her. Yes, my worry got to that extent.

Hopefully 2025 onwards will be a better year for both jie jie and didi.

Some personal reflection for me: I realised I have been getting short tempered nowadays and sometimes my reaction can be rather extreme. This is definitely not good and I really got to constantly remind myself to be more chill moving forward.

 

On a bright side, we just came back from a family trip to Bali. Last trip there was 10 years ago with wifey and we didn't have kids then.

 

Had a good time for this 5-days holiday over Christmas although we nearly missed our return flight.

Our hotel is 15 min from the airport. But the trip took nearly an hour because of traffic. Our flight is scheduled for 9.05 pm and we reached the airport around 8.50 pm and the boarding gate at 9.10 pm.

Luckily the flight itself is also delayed and we managed to join the queue.. in waiting. The flight eventually took off around 10.05 pm.

Lessons learnt:

1) I checked-in online the night before and it turned out to be the best decision because by the time we reached the airport, the check-in counter was already closed. Had we not checked-in beforehand, we would not be able to go through the customs, delayed flight or not.

2) Always cater for extra extra time for Bali especially during weekends.

 

Today is also the first day at their new school for both kids. I accompanied didi while wifey accompanied jie jie. New environment, new teachers. Both seem to be coping well.

I hope they enjoy the process of learning and not be fixated on the end results because if they achieve the former, the latter will take care of itself.

 

Investments

 

SGD

 

Have been adding on a monthly basis whenever possible over the past year.

 

Although the plan in the beginning of the year was to diversify and reduce the REITs concentration in my portfolio, only one of the purchases was for a non-REIT - Netlink NBN Trust, which I bought on two separate occasions. The rest of the purchases was for Ascendas REIT, MIT and MLT. I also subscribed and applied for excess for CICT PO.

 

If I have stuck to my plan in 2024, portfolio performance would perhaps, be even better. Really got to be more disciplined and execute my plan this year which is again, to reduce the REITs concentration.

 

I started tracking my portfolio performance in 2016 and hence cumulative dividends is recorded from that year onwards.

 

As of writing, Ascendas REIT is my biggest holding at around 20% by market value.

Best performer is DBS at +119.91% followed by OCBC at +88%.

Worst performer is CLCT at -46.24%.

 

Summary of my holdings and performance as follows.

 

USD / HKD

 

Did some cleaning up of this portfolio in the last two trading days of the year.

Took profit off AAPL (+54.93%)

Took partial profit off MSFT (+47.08%)

 

Got rid of GREE (-99.21%). The speculation of this counter is one of the biggest mistakes of my investing career so far.

 

Cut loss on BABA (-33.73%) because macro outlook remains murky and rounds of stimulus and pep talk by the central government failed to lift the share price. They have also recently did a drastic price reduction on Qwen, which is their AI tool for enterprises. This move is probably meant to gain market share domestically and I believe it will help to a certain extent. I am never a fan of price war and whether this will spark one with other players like Baidu remains to be seen. However one thing is certain, margin for this segment for Alibaba will be compressed by this move.

Portfolio Value (SGD equivalent): $16,626.37

Overall

Total Portfolio Value: S$188,452.35

Business

 

Business so far has been average after the record performance last FY. Still got two more months to go before closing. I am hopeful one of the government contracts we are negotiating will come through soon.

 

Collaboration for the new technology is moving forward albeit on a slower pace than I would like to. We are collaborating with one of the local institutes of higher learning. Maybe that's just how academics work but on and off I need to push them along to move things faster.

 

Nevertheless this is the engine for our next phase of growth and I am determined to make this work.

 

Side Line

Did a tabulation and realised I generated S$19,500 over the past year from my side line as a personal trainer. Not bad considering I dedicated only week day mornings to this hustle. No evenings, no weekends, no holidays. Those are strictly for my family and personal time.

This figure should be higher in 2025 as more private clients are starting to sign up with me. They are mainly referred through word of mouth as I do not actively advertise my service.

I would say most if not all the clients are either c-suite or rich tais tais who are generally not bothered by the price and would not haggle over it so that makes things easier. I just need to focus on helping them achieve their goals.

My current allocation for this side income is:

50% goes to investment

25% goes to SA top up

25% goes to discretionary spending

Moving forward this will remains.

Donation

 

Personal donation is a yearly ongoing affair for me. Other than the monthly GIRO contribution to certain charities, I will usually make ad hoc donations towards year end as well.

 

Same as previous years, this year I have chosen to donate to causes close to my heart - the young and the elderly.

Hopefully this post will inspire readers too.

 

Other than personal donation, I have also donated on a company-level with the latest one in July 2024. This will continue as long as the business continues to be profitable.