Happy Lunar New Year 2018

To all readers, here's wishing you and your family a very Happy and Prosperous Chinese New Year. May you and your loved ones stay Healthy and Happy always!

Those with the dog zodiac sign are not having the best of luck this year apparently. And I'm one old doggie too. Luckily I don't believe too much in the zodiacs.

To all fellow doggies I wish you the best of luck. For myself I look forward to another fruitful year ahead.

Woof woof.

Portfolio Review: Suntec REIT

Suntec turned in a respectable overall set of FY2017 results amidst a challenging year in terms of retail.

Y-o-Y,

Gross revenue up by 7.8%
Net Property income up by 8.9%
Distributable income up by 3.7%

Latest dividend yield based on my bought price is around 6%.

In terms of office space, Suntec has done well particularly from their 2016 acquisition, 177 Pacific Highway.

However their retail segment continues to be weak. Revenue contribution from the retail space dropped last year.

Will I continue to hold? Yes.
Will I add more? Maybe.

How Do I See the Possible Merger of ESR-Reit and Viva Industrial Trust

Although the combined entity will be the 4th largest industrial REIT by asset value and 5th largest by market cap in Singapore, I hope the deal doesn't materialise.

The figures above sure look impressive.

However in my opinion the future outlook, portfolio quality and the performance of the REIT management are equally, if not more important.

Take a look at the following table.

 

Gross revenue, NPI and DPU have been decreasing Y-o-Y for ESR whereas that of Viva Industrial Trust (VIT) have grown Y-o-Y. This is a testament of the REIT's manager strength.

Apart from the WALE and occupancy rate which are higher, ESR is going to be a drag on VIT.

Numbers don't lie. Though in some cases they do tell a different story. For example, the REIT's rental reversion depends on what type of leases they take into account. But this is topic for another day.

Since we are at rental reversion, let's look at the negative rental reversion of ESR and think about how this will impact the REIT price performance and dividend payout.

In the most direct manner, the DPU will be negatively affected going forward. The overall value of the REIT portfolio will also be negatively impacted since the collective value of the assets will go down.

Comparing to ESR, I would say VIT performed much more admirably. Whether it's the distribution yield, revenue, NPI or rental reversion.

I also prefer the portfolio of VIT more than that of ESR. Except for 7000 AMK, the rest of the latter's portfolio doesn't conjure any excitement in me when I glanced through.

On the contrary I prefer the outlook for the two crown jewels of VIT: Viva Business Park and UE BizHub East.

Having said that, I do see something interesting for ESR with the Tuas mega port coming up in 2040.

ESR has a number of properties in Tuas among which one of them was acquired last year with 36 years remaining land lease.

If they can position themselves to make use of the mega port development, it should change the dynamics for them.

In summary unless there's something very positive that I missed out in ESR, I hope the deal doesn't goes through.

Portfolio Review: Viva Industrial Trust

Managed to find time to review the performance of my holdings.

For Viva Industrial Trust (VIT), the FY2017 results are nothing short of stunning and vindicated my decision to pay a premium to purchase the units three months ago.

The glowing result is mainly contributed by the post-AEI Viva Business Park and the logistics property at 6 Chin Bee Avenue. UE BizHub East also shows marginal increase in revenue contribution.

The following slides show it all.

 

In a span of one year (2016 end - 2017 end), share price of VIT ran up from S$0.755 to S$0.94. An increase of nearly 20 cents. This is justifiable.

As an income investor, one of the criteria I look out for when adding a stock into my long term portfolio is the dividend payout. In this aspect VIT remains one of the best among the industrial REITs.

I do have a concern regarding the WALE of 2.6 years though I won't be losing sleep over this as VIT is doing quite well in terms of tenancy retention. However this shall be a point of monitoring for me.

Fundamentally, VIT remains solid. Outlook in my opinion, is looking good especially for both business parks.

Will I continue to keep VIT in my portfolio? Absolutely.

Will I add more? Yes.

Now comes the golden question. How do I see the possible merger of ESR and VIT?

I will answer this in the next post since the reply will not be a short one.