Showing posts with label Comfort Delgro. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Comfort Delgro. Show all posts

Sunday, 31 August 2025

August 2025 Updates

For the month of August, I bought MIT @ $1.99 and Comfortdelgro @ $1.47.

The former is a continuing accumulation to build up my existing position when price dips. With this addition, MIT now occupies 8.75% of the portfolio based on market value.

The latter is a reentry since I sold it 8 years ago. Bought it post XD as the price felt comfortable for a first tranche, dividend yield has become attractive and business fundamentals & outlook are improving.

This month also seen dividends received from

OCBC @ $476.42
DBS @ $495
SingTel @ $800

Total: $1,771.42

Looking forward to next month's dividends. 

Local portfolio value and P&L excluding dividends:


I also transferred $19,999 to DBS fixed deposit with 2.45% interest.

Had a rather unpleasant experience at Punggol Coast Mall Fairprice Finest with my family yesterday.

We were at the 2nd floor doing our shopping and an auntie promoter at the 'Europe' shelving offered my 5 year old a sample.

My son declined as he will always ask me or my wife for permission before accepting things from strangers. 

What irks me is that I heard the promoter told my son to stop looking if he does not want the sample.

After that my son came back to me and I squatted down to ask him what did the promoter said to him. From the corner of my eye I saw the promoter crept up and hid behind one of the shelves near us to eavesdrop on our conversation.

When my son told me the exact words that I heard earlier, I had wanted to go to confront the promoter but my two kids stopped me, saying they are afraid I would be taken away by the police. That gave me a chuckle.

Nevertheless I happened to see the Fairprice store manager and feedback to her about the incident.

Her empathy, professionalism and prompt action are exemplary and show why she deserves to be a manager.

Two ladies, two poles apart in behaviour. 

Anyway writing this to let off some steam.

Thanks for reading. 

Thursday, 28 May 2020

Dividend Counters with Potential Growth

I have always used fundamental analysis be it the top-down or bottom-up approach for any addition of dividend counters with good growth potential to my income portfolio. 

Although it works well so far, I have been wanting to qualify my analyses with a mathematical model to justify them.
Maybe it's due to my engineering and science background. I don't know.

I found what I wanted some time last year from a fellow member on one of the online platforms that I frequent.

Apparently there is a finance formula called Dividend Yield + Expected Capital Growth (DYG).

This formula uses the expected annual dividend, dividend payout ratio and ROE as the metrics for gauging whether a particular counter is a good income-paying one with long term growth.

I created a spreadsheet with formulas for easy calculation as shown below.

 
The ROE is calculated by dividing the EPS by the NAV per share.

The dividend payout ratio is calculated by dividing the dividend per share by the EPS.

I obtained the EPS, dividend amount and NAV from the companies' annual and quarterly reports instead of third party websites for accuracy sake. Just a personal preference.
 
Coming from a non-finance background I have never heard of this formula prior to this. And being a skeptical person (guess it's just my nature, I don't usually take things at face value.), I did some searches online but couldn't find any results on this formula.

So I did the next best thing. Using the formula on some counters in my watch list and monitor them for couple of months, including their latest quarter reports.

The counters identified back then as good counters (DYG >10%), largely performed well so far.
So I decided to do a new round of calculations for selected counters in my watch list today.

The latest DYG results are as follows.


The top 3 counters I've identified in my previous round of calculations some months back are still the same with this latest set of calculations.
 
I also did a little stress test to mirror the current macro situation by factoring a 30% reduction in expected dividends.

Interestingly the DYG value of some counters went up while the others decreased. There is no fixed pattern.

I'm still trying to analyse why but one thing for certain. Even after factoring the 30% dividend cut into the calculations, the top 3 counters are still the same. The change in the respective DYG value is insignificant, not even 1% difference.

Lastly I have appended below the raw data for your reference if it's helpful to you.

Most investors who have read enough annual reports will roughly know where to find data such as EPS and NAV.

Nonetheless it is still quite a chore to download the various AR and run through the pages for so many companies. I wouldn't wish anyone else to do it if you have a choice.

So here it goes.


Conclusion

Personally I find the DYG method complementary to my current stock selection methodology. Moving forward I will probably add it as one more step as a justification to my FA.

For sharing purpose I have summarised my methodology as follows.

1. Use stock screener to sieve out potential counters. Personally I use P/B, P/E and debt/equity ratios, net profit and dividend yield.

2. Use FA to narrow down the counters.

3. Use DYG method as a double check.

4. Purchase counter(s).

5. And enjoy the passive income.

P.s. Decided to use another font type and font colour for this post. Please feel free to let me know if it's better for viewing compared to previous posts. Thanks.

Thursday, 26 April 2018

Takeaways from ComfortDelGro AGM 2018

ComfortDelGro AGM 2018

Date: 26/04/2018

Duration: 10.00 - 11.55 am

Turnout: ~80% of the auditorium

Chairman Mr Lim Jit Poh opened the meeting with an introduction of the board and a speech on ComfortDelGro's (CDG) performance and business overview followed by a summary of 2017 financial results presented by the CFO.

Questions from the floor

Q: With regards to the current disruptions to the businesses, what are the approaches by the board to deal with these? So far CDG is using defensive moves. Can CDG be more proactive?

A: CDG is always actively looking forward though they did not say it publicly. Management and board are looking actively at autonomous vehicles and electric vehicles (EV) for now.

They are also talking to Singapore Power to set up electric charging stations.

In London their buses are already electrically charged.

They are also bringing new directors including one with artificial intelligence (A.I.) expertise to the board*.

* News of this have been announced publicly this afternoon

Q: CDG has acquired vehicle fleet from Uber. How does it impact CDG and what is the ROI?

A: The vehicles are not purchased yet. Money is not spent yet. The acquisition proposal is now at Competition and Consumer Commission of Singapore (CCCS).

CDG recognise that the sharing economy is here to stay and partnering with an existing player is the best and fastest way to go into this market.

Definitely CDG is moving into the private hire segment.

Q: What does the agreement with Uber entails?

A: Partnership with Uber app but this is ending on 7th May 2018.

Signed an agreement with Lion City Rentals (LCR) to buy 51% of LCR subject to regulatory approval.

Q: Since there will be no more Uber Flash after 7th May, what is the next step for CDG?

A: CDG will be using only CDG's own app after that. But they are actively looking around for partnership with other apps.

Q: Is Vicom ready for EV?

A: Yes.

Q: Why has CDG's inventories gone up?

A: Because of the rail business.

Q: Is CDG collaborating with Grab to put CDG's taxis on their platform?

A: Currently Grab is tying with other operator with 40% market share. If CDG also tie up with Grab, will CCCS agree? (this question is posed back by the chairman as a response)

Q: How much further will CDG push down the taxi rental fare to attract more drivers?

A: Drivers attrition rate has in fact gone down. This month might even see a net gain of drivers. So the answer to this question depends on the attrition rate.

Q: CDG has a large fleet of taxis idling. What is the current idling rate compared to last year?

A: To date the idling rate is 2 - 3% which is about 400 vehicles.

CDG downsized the fleet by swapping older taxis with newer taxis for the drivers. Scrapping older taxi is cheaper.

Q: What is the rationale for buying LCR when CDG is already trying hard to retain drivers?

A: If CDG buy LCR, they will only buy hired vehicles not unhired ones.

Q: What is the FX impact for this year?

A: 2017 FX positive impact from the AUD but pound and RMB dropped. For this year, it is the reverse so far.

Q: What is the chairman's comment on his recent interview on Straits Times about CDG having to contend with lower margin business in the future?

A: CDG has to be realistic about today's market. For example they lost the last two bus contracting model (BCM) contracts because they only dropped a little bit of margin.

Q: 9 year rule by MAS - Director who has served for more than 9 years is no longer considered independent director. CDG has 9 directors who have served for > 9 years.

A: CDG is renewing the board.

Q: Will CDG consider buying over Uber?

A: No. These tech companies are losing billions of dollars.

Resolutions: All passed.

Snippets

1) After the registration of my attendance, I had wanted to get myself a drink before going into the auditorium. However I was stopped by a lady.

I told her I just want some water but she replied if she allows that the floodgate will open. Ok reasonable enough.

Then I asked if they have bottled water inside the hall she said no as they are environmental-friendly. Ok fair enough too.

2) As for the buffet after the AGM, I did not queue for that as I did not want to join the snaking queue.

Summary and my thoughts

Chairman Mr Lim Jit Poh, is a former top civil servant and an experienced businessman whom I believe most of us would have heard of his name.

CEO and MD Mr Yang Ban Seng, is of course an old hand in the land transport business having joined the group in 1989.

I find both of them to be direct, jovial and candid when answering questions from the floor.

Both of them knows what they are saying and are sincere in doing so.

This is one of the best AGMs I have attended in terms of the Q&A.

Many good questions are asked during the AGM though many are related to the LCR acquisition.

Importantly I see the chairman took a keen interest in answering the questions from the floor. He also showed that he is a hands on person by the way he made the effort to personally explained what the individual resolutions are about instead of just reading from the notes on resolutions.

I like that.

What do I feel about CDG?

Business-wise, big challenges await CDG in the land transport sector. However they have not been sitting idly. This is evident in their aggressiveness on the M&A front with 3 acquisitions in 2017 and 8 this year so far.

From what I see, these are synergistic businesses. Whether these are profit-accretive, I'm sure the management would have done their homework.

Moving forward in the near term, the key is how they manage the private hire challenge and how they can turn that into an advantage instead.

On the longer horizon, we have to see how the recent acquisitions work out. Meaningful contributions might not take long I suspect.

Finance-wise, cash flow remains strong. Net cash position of >$590 M is no joke (though probably that has been reduced with the most recent acquisitions).

Dividend amount has been increasing every year with dividend payout from the net profit increased from 70.1% in 2016 to 74.6% in 2017. There is still room for growth.

Personally I am interested in adding ComfortDelgro at prices translating to at least 5% dividend yield for my income portfolio.

Friday, 29 September 2017

Reviewing Comfort Delgro in Wifey's Portfolio

Price of Comfort Delgro (CDG) has dropped since I bought it for wifey's dividend portfolio last month. This is mainly due to the double whammy of recent negative news.

This begets a question - Will I cut loss and sell it? Simple answer is no.

This is because the Grab / Uber factor has been overly played and I believe it has largely been priced in. Furthermore if I assume a drastic worst case of 10% drop in dividend next year, based on our purchased price the yield is still a respectable 4.3% (above my criteria of 4% CPF interest).

In fact I am looking out for an opportunity to buy in for myself and wifey.

I have previously sold my holdings for a small profit when the price hit $2.3x about a month ago.

Another important question is - Do I expect CDG to languish below $2 for the next 3 - 5 years? Simple answer is no again.

At this point of writing, CDG has a closing price of $2.08. It has risen for 2 days but this is probably due to the shorts covering.

I personally expect the price to drop again in the near term before rising to a stable point when market realise the fear is actually not that fearful.

Already I am seeing some analyst reports saying the above.

Sometimes it's funny to see how quickly they change opinion. Faster than the prata man opoosite my place flipping his prata : )

Wednesday, 30 August 2017

August Updates

August has been a good month for me in terms of investments.

Dividends

Dividends Collected

S$1,486.57

This comes from M1, SingTel, OCBC, CapitaLand Commercial Trust and Suntec Reit.

Stocks Purchased

Mapletree Logistics Trust @ S$1.185

This purchase forms part of my long term portfolio. Reasons for entering have been shared here.

Comfort Delgro @ S$2.18

Bought a second tranche when the price took a battering recently. This lowered my average price and subsequently I sold my holdings to take in some profits.

However I will enter CDG again once the opportunity arises as it is still a solid stock that I fancy and my belief in its fundamentals remains unchanged.

Wilmar @ S$3.11

I have been monitoring Wilmar for some time and when the price dropped recently to what I felt is a value with sufficient safety margin, I decided to make my maiden purchase into this commodities giant.

This will be a short term trade for me as it does not fits into my long term plan.

Stock Sold

Comfort Delgro @ S$2.33

Sold CDG for a small profit during the mini run up on news of possible collaboration with Uber. Decided to lock in the profits first for deployment elsewhere.


Last but not least, I received a bonus S$100 in the form of NS50 vouchers. Cheers!

Friday, 18 August 2017

Wifey's S$20,000 Portfolio

Wifey recently got interested in investment for passive income too.

So one fine day she asked me to build up a dividend-paying portfolio for her with S$20,000 as the base capital.

The first thing I did was to look through my watch list for suitable stocks with dividend yield of at least 4%.

After identifying the stocks I waited for the opportune moment with comfortable price point to buy in for the long term.

After several weeks the first stock I bought is M1 at $1.86 pre-XD.

Weeks later, another opportunity arose. I bought Mapletree Logistics Trust at $1.185 when the price dipped.

Finally when the price fell yesterday, I bought Comfort Delgro at $2.18.

So as it stands wifey's portfolio now consists of the following:

M1 @ 4,000 shares (+ another 2,000 shares bought previously)
MLT @ 5,000 shares
CDG @ 3,000 shares

There are several more stocks in my watch list which will be added if the opportunity arises.

Tuesday, 30 May 2017

Recent Actions - April & May 17

Just a quick update on my stock related activities for the past two months.

S$1,282 contra loss on Rotary Engineering.

S$590 M1 dividends received.

S$121 Comfort Delgro dividends received.

S$400 Capitaland dividends received.

S$97 Suntec Reit dividends received.
 
On the watch list, some of the counters have been inching towards or have reached my buying target price.

I am keeping a close eye on:

ISOTeam - to add more on further dips

Raffles Medical, ThaiBev and Wilmar - to initiate position

Will enter when the time arrives.
 
I have not been that successful in trading recently. However at least I know what went wrong. Will definitely keep these lessons in mind.

Last but not least, I hope to be more active in the market in the coming months. But I won't buy just for the sake of buying. After all a bird in hand is worth two in the bushes.

Wednesday, 8 February 2017

Recent Action - Comfort Delgro

Bought 2,000 shares of Comfort Delgro (CDG) at $2.38 as my first tranche yesterday morning after putting it in queue on the previous night.

The counter has fallen below my target price for buy in recently and my first thought was maybe I should enter after their latest financial results are released on this Friday.

However I decided to do some study on their 3Q16 results.

In summary the 3Q results are not bad but not sterling either. In other words, the business remained quite stable.

Likes:

Stable operating profit.

Net cash position.

Gearing remains low.

Capex was lower compared to 3Q15. This shows the company is putting effort for sustainable growth.

Diversified businesses including non-vehicular business such as 3rd party testing house, Setsco.

Concerns:

Decreased revenue from bus BU due to the new Bus Contracting Model.

Taxi BU will continue to face headwinds from Uber and Grab. But I trust CDG will take reactive measures to tackle this. Furthermore Uber and Grad drivers are required to get a vocational license by this year.

Also expected decrease in revenue from other BUs such as the bus station, automotive engineering services, inspection & testing services and car rental & leasing should be able to be offset by the increase in revenue from the rail business especially as riderships on NEL and DTL continue to grow!

Going to ride on NEL and DTL more frequent!

CDG share price as of point of writing is $2.43.

I probably got lucky as news came out yesterday on the mandatory requirement for private-hire car drivers from operators such as Uber and Grab to get vocational license.

Hopefully the latest results on this Friday would be favourably viewed by the market as well.

Good luck and cheers to all who are vested.